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Monte Carlo Simulation Challenges

Alex LyaschenkoMember for 15 years 2 months
Created
2
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  1. 0
    Peter Holroyd ·

    Alex,1 quality of data

    Alex,

    1 quality of data assumptions - are we all biased in some way?

    2 how to get a collective team risk effort rather than risk manager / software

    3 "selling" results to senior management in a meaningful way - is it just contingency drawdown?

    4 how do we deal with external project events not explicitily covered in the contract (which seem to becoming more common)

    5 next simple steps beyond MCS for more real world scenario

     

    Peter

  2. 0
    Alex Lyaschenko ·

    Hi Peter, Sorry for delay

    Hi Peter, 

    Sorry for delay with th response.
    >1 quality of data assumptions - are we all biased in some way?

     Yes, and there are methods to deal with it. 

    >2 how to get a collective team risk effort rather than risk manager / software

    The schedule development process need to be changed. Initial data has to be collected as a range with primary uncertainties from SMEs. Risk managers have to support that and use collected data for analysis.

    > 3 "selling" results to senior management in a meaningful way - is it just contingency drawdown?

    It is a risk transfer. Senior management can decide to start the project even if it is only, let say 10% to meet dates and cost commitments. The PMs can do their best, but there is a 90% chance that they ask extra time, money or both.
     

    > 4 how do we deal with external project events not explicitily covered in the contract (which seem to becoming more common)

    All external dependencies is a specific type of risks and must be managed via risk processes. 

    Technically, in a risk simulation tool, create an external task, not a milestone (as it has no duration). Simulate the duration uncertainty of this task. I will cover it the future posts.   

    >5 next simple steps beyond MCS for more real world scenario
    Learn MCS “side effects” and alternative approaches, like “3 scenarios” method. 

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