M4.3 Quantitative Risk Analysis

By the end of this section, the learner should be able to take a defined project objective, a credible current schedule or cost model, and a selected set of material uncertainties and turn them into a transparent quantitative view of possible outcomes. They should be able to distinguish deterministic dates and costs from probability distributions, decide which risks and sources of variability should be modelled, develop defensible ranges and event assumptions, understand the purpose of Monte Carlo simulation, interpret confidence levels and probability-of-success outputs, identify the uncertainties that drive the result, and use scenario analysis to support a management decision.