A brief history of Scheduling

Dear Vladimir,

Theoretically, let us assume the managment process is perfected. Lets assume that 50% of the projects worldwide are run effectively and efficiently to the best of everyones knowledge (I would like to know your estimate). We come back to the original question:

How is the CPM helping the decision makers in the time and cost issues? Which is the original goal of a CPM.

I know that if you are on the project with your CPM tool, things are likely to be under control and it will benefit the project. But that is an "ad hoc" solution.

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Samer,

CPM is the method of the project scheduling that ignores resource, supply and financial restrictions.
I think that you mean proper project scheduling that takes into account all existing constraints.
And your phrase about perfect management process I understand as the proposal to discuss the benefits of proper projectt management that includes project planning and scheduling.

When I write about creating project schedule model I mean the model that will answer any what if question. It means that managers can estimate future results of potential actions before making the decision.

Good Project resource constrained schedule helps to optimize the workforce and machines, to minimize the waste of the working time and project duration, to optimize the supply schedule.

Risk management is another source of potential benefits.

And since nothing goes as planned an ability to reschedule the project and reassign resources optimally in the real time is also a large benefit.

If you create shorter schedules, use less resources to achieve the same goals, always have all required information for communications and decision making, have sufficient contingency reserves for risk events that were calculated and optimized (not too small. not too large), etc. you will save a lot of money and a lot of time.

But I repeat that if somebody somewhere drawed CPM schedule that is not used for the real management and decision making then it is a waste of time.

Best Regards,
Vladimir

Dear Vladimir,

I have question out of topic:

For "Caspian Pipeline Construction" and "Blue Stream" Pipeline" projects, did you act as an advisory subcontractor to "GASPROM"?

If so; what are the ideas or comments on the projects by "General Electric, Bechtel, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, SOCAR, TPAO,...." (who shall be involved?) through your looking glass for the project?

I can understand that you are responsible about confidentiality to your customers but can you could provide us some demonstrations or papers about this kind of projects?

For the discussion: I prefer and trying to implement; manual resource levelling for the baselines(I think achievable and important) and using software resource levelling for periodical updates and forecasts.

Regards,

Safak VURAL

Samer,

If you do not use the schedule as a dynamic tool, even if “drawn” by an “expert” scheduler it is just toilet tissue paper. The schedule is dynamic; therefore the management team must be able to use it on demand.

The action scheduler will use the tool to determine course of action using “what-if” scenarios. The CPM will not be a substitute to the skills of the manager, this is an erroneous belief. The CPM will assist the team to analyze different scenarios, if the model is good and maintained as a dynamic thing to represent changed conditions it will provide good assistance.

Most probably the scheduler will look at the two infamous indicators of what is driving the schedule at the moment of the analysis; these are total float and free float, named in order of relevance, the first with very dominant priority. If your software provides you with true float after resource leveling you are a step ahead, if you know all driving links even better, beware that resource dependencies usually are kind of concurrent and the delay of only one can release all others.

Of course other scenarios such as changing work logic or changing the means and methods should be considered.

What-if is the key, if not performed frequently you are not managing the schedule with the assistance of the CPM, you are forcing the CPM to follow you, you are using it just as a record keeping tool. What-if is not easy because every time you change the scenario the Critical Path, the driving relationships and demand of resources vary.

Because I am an action scheduler when our schedules start to fall behind we do a lot of what-if analysis and this way we keep the jobs on course. Because is not easy and can be time consuming is why I am so concerned about the understanding of what is driving my schedule. At any given time I am concerned about all activities that cannot be delayed to avoid delaying total project duration and also to avoid delaying some non critical but immediate successors, these are non critical drivers. Any tool that assists us to understand the logic is welcomed.

I would like to add that if when resources loading you get into too much granularity this will make you lose perspective as the resource dependencies will exponentially increase. Construction jobs are managed at the crew level; use this as your unit or at least keep them in teams.

Best regards,
Rafael

Dear Safak,

At Caspian Pipeline Construction project we worked with the General Contractor and more precisely with the management company Starstroy specially created for CPC management.
We were involved in creating two schedules – one for the mobilization and another one – for construction.
Construction schedule was very detailed and this model was used for determining the technologies that will be used (four spreads, where the work will start, in what direction the construction will go at each part of the pipeline, etc.) and what quantities of machines and people are necessary to use to be on time.

The schedule that was created by the joint team of our consultants and our client was approved by the project management company that represented the Owner (Fleur) and then was used for tenders and contracting. Tender participants were required to agree with the schedule or to make necessary adjustments (there were none) and to demonstrate that they have sufficient amounts of necessary mechanisms and workforce (including certified welders).
The schedule had near 9000 activities with more than 1000 resource types.
The schedule was submitted to the management company and we were not involved in the following construction management.

Blue Stream schedule was developed for Gazprom with the similar purpose – to determine the durations and resources necessary for timely construction for future contracting.

We were and are involved in other pipeline construction projects and not only at the planning phase as in these examples but also at the execution stage. These two projects are not typical for our activities.

I do not believe in manual leveling. When there are thousands resource types it is impossible. Playing what if shall be manual because only people know if it is possible to add some resources to some crews. But if the crews are known the software shall provide the results of your what if evaluations.
If you created the manual schedule then you will need to do manual scheduling again when the information will change and it is changing each time when you enter actual. It is impossible. If you start to use automatic leveling then your initial manual schedule will not work and the baseline order of work may be rejected.
In Spider Project we have special function (Previous version support) that can help to keep the order of work that you prefer but I did not see this functionality in any other software. I think that it is necessary to rely on automatic leveling that takes into account user defined priorities but tries to minimize overall project duration. Playing with priorities shall be manual, not the leveling itself. In large projects it is very time consuming.

On the slide 37 of this presentation:
http://www.spiderproject.ru/library/eng/Spider%20Project%20Presentation.ppt
you may find the Linear Diagram (Time-Location Chart) of Caspian Pipeline Construction Project. I don’t remember special publications on this topic.

Best Regards,
Vladimir

Vladimir and Safak,

My experience with prioritization with other software was that it was bypassed very frequently contrary to what happens in Spider Project, some might be skeptical about prioritization because of their prior experience. Phase Prioritization keep order on the house. I also would like to add that Spider have two levels of prioritization one at the Phase Level and another at the Activity Level, that in Spider you can have unlimited WBS and you can define a specific one for your phase prioritization while displaying the schedule on another WBS. Theoretically this can provide you with unlimited combinations as you can define unlimited WBS each with a single phase per activity, and then group the different phases using phase levels, kind of too much but the statistic is there for those who go overboard.

Resource leveling within Spider Project is a different experience, don’t judge it by your prior experiences with other software.

Best regards,
Rafael

Dear Vladimir,

Thank you for your clear reply.

Regards,

SV

P.S. I agree that I need to experience other methods to understand the difference.

Hi all,

I found this article that describes the status of Scheduling in the Introduction and the Conclusion sections.

www.pmicos.org/topics/ aug2006tom.pdf
Scheduling 101: A "Behind-the-Scenes" Look at Basic Schedule ..

More of the same, but the good thing it is a published article by PMI college of Scheduling. Imagine that... they agree.

With kind regards,

Samer
P.S. You can only make toilet papers out of Contract Documents only after the elapse of 10 years period Rafael.

Samer,

Is this a continuation of the paper I referred under my posting #19 under this thread, is it Part 2?

“On the issue on continuous/discontinuous (non-split/split activities) the following article can serve as a start.”

http://www.pmicos.org/topics/aug2006tom.pdf

I could not get it following your link by pasting it.

Best regards,
Rafael

Hi,

This is interesting topic found in a guide: Common Time Robbers. This is actually written down in a guide. These guys know exactly what is wrong, but they have the discipline to make it work. Pretty much like what Vladimir is doing. The rest are not so lucky.

Scheduling Guide for Program Managers
www.dau.mil/pubs/gdbks/schedulinguide.pdf

APPENDIX B
Common Time Robbers1

• Procrastination
• Setting up appointments
• Too many meetings
• Monitoring delegated work
• Unclear roles/job descriptions
• Unnecessary crisis intervention
• Need to get involved in details to get job done
• Not enough proven or trustworthy managers
• Vague goals and objectives
• Too many people involved in minor decision making
• Lack of technical knowledge
• Lack of authorization to make judgment decisions
• Unreasonable time constraints
• Lack of commitment from higher authorities
• Too much travel
• Lack of adequate project management tools
• Poor functional communications/ writing skills
• Inability to relate to peers in a personal way
• Rush into decisions/beat the deadline
• Lack of reward (“a pat on the back can do wonders”)
• Expecting too much from one’s staff and oneself
• Going from crisis to crisis
• Conflicting directives
• Fire drills
• Lack of privacy
• Lack of challenge in job duties
• Bureaucratic roadblocks (“ego”)
• Empire-building line managers
• Too much work for one person to handle effectively
• Excessive paperwork
• Lack of clerical/administrative support
• Workload growing faster than capacity 78
• Dealing with unreliable subcontractors
• Personnel not willing to take risks
• Demand for short-term results
• Lack of long-range planning
• Being overdirected
• Overreacting management
• Poor lead time on projects
• Documentation (reports/red tape)
• Large number of projects
• Inadequate or inappropriate requirements
• Desire for perfection
• Lack of dedication by technical experts
• Lack of project organization
• Constant pressure
• Constant interruptions
• Project budget problems
• Shifting of functional personnel
• Lack of qualified manpower

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Rafael,

The complete title of the paper is:

Scheduling 101: A "Behind-the-Scenes" Look at Basic Schedule Calculations
James L. Jenkins
Purdue University
West Lafayette, Indiana
Scott W. Kramer Joseph J. Orczyk
Auburn University Purdue University
Auburn, Alabama West Lafayette, Indiana

www.pmicos.org/topics/ aug2006tom.pdf

The link works. I tried it again now. Or you can google the paper.

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Rafael and Vladimi,

I think that you will like reading this, it is a good reference:

NASA Scheduling Management Handbook
This handbook provides schedule management guidance for NASA Headquarters, NASA

http://spacese.spacegrant.org/uploads/Schedule/NASA_SMH_DRAF...

They have a very structured approach. Having the best people in the world automatically make everything easy. Not quite the same at Construction Sites.

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Vladimir,

You are going to love this:

"
CRITICAL PATH SCHEDULING - PHILOSOPHY AND EXPERIENCE
By Robert B. Vogeler, Meissner Engineers, Inc.
300 West Washington, Chicago 6, Illinois
Presentad At: The 6th Annual Convention
American Association of, Cost Engineers, June $7, 1962
Chicago, IllinOiS

Conclusions
I have not stressed the use of digital computers as a means of implementing Critical Path Scheduling. My reasoning in doing this is to stress the concept of a management science technique applied to construction, not a computer application. The concept of Critical Path
Scheduling has no direct relationship to computers and is only the sophistication of planning and scheduling (except where the number of activities is extensive, then computer use is required because of time and complexity). Therefore, Critical Path Scheduling should be examined
from its true perspective - a defined planning technique developed in our evolution of management science.
"

CPM true benefits (Saving time and cost) got lost during the development of "user friendly" sofisticated tools for trained experts.

With kind regards,

Samer

Samer,

For your knowledge original PERT computations were in error. Today no serious software uses their original mathematical assumptions and either use Monte Carlo or other modern mathematical methods to get a better estimate of the probability distribution. Because Monte Carlo is quite time consuming I prefer the other methods, and Monte Carlo as a tool to validate the other methods.

http://www.netmba.com/operations/project/pert/



See also

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/2008/RM3408.pdf

One of the paragraphs in the article you are referring reads as follows:

-"PERT and CPM scheduling techniques have many similarities. For example, each shows the relationships among activities and events, both include the project’s critical path, and the structure of each allows analysis of the tasks to be done, resources assigned to do them, and the time associated with each task. Both techniques use nodes to represent events (beginning and end of activities) and lines to represent the activities."

This really confused me as today many call PERT Diagram the Activity on Node representation and not the Activity on Arrow representation. This is kind of new to me, perhaps many software developers are wrongly using the PERT name or the article is wrong.

Maybe you can call PERT Distribution to their estimate of a Beta Distribution; this makes sense to me, but no more.

http://www.vosesoftware.com/ModelRiskHelp/index.htm#Distributions/Continuous_distributions/PERT_distribution.htm

Best regards,
Rafael

Samer,

CRITICAL PATH SCHEDULING - PHILOSOPHY AND EXPERIENCE
By Robert B. Vogeler, Meissner Engineers, Inc.
300 West Washington, Chicago 6, Illinois
Presentad At: The 6th Annual Convention
American Association of, Cost Engineers, June $7, 1962
Chicago, IllinOiS

THIS IS A 1962 PAPER ALMOST STILL IN THE ENIAC COMPUTER ERA.

Better get a couple of Cray machines.

http://www.deskeng.com/articles/aaathm.htm

Best regards,
Rafael

Dear Rafael,

Read below what the introduction of published article in 1984 in AACE is saying:

"
1984 AACE Transactions
The CPM Technique in Construction: A critique, By Derek Mason

INTRODUCTION
The Critical Path Method (CPM) has now been in
use for a quarter of a century. As a technology,
it is young compared to, say, the science of pressure
vessel design, but its youth can no longer
be allowed to serve as an excuse for substandard
application. If the development of computers is
used as a comparison, the progress of CPM and
project scheduling looks somewhat anemic. So it
behooves us to take a critical look at the status
of the tool. Because of CPM’s omnipresence in
the profession, the profession itself should also
be critically examined.
CPM scheduling has been overdeveloped as a
science and underdeveloped ’as a user-oriented
tool. It has all too often been forgotten that
schedules are not produced for schedulers, but
for managers. It is essential that service to
the user be given high operational priority.
"
With kind regards,

Samer
PS. Not sure what’s inside the black boxes. I didn’t open one for CPM before, sorry Rafael.

Dear Rafael,

I moved up in time, but it still looks confusing to others as well. And it is published.

I am reading what others wanted to accomplish when they started the CPM and what we have now. That is why I am reading the 50’s and 60’s.

With kind regards,

Samer

The article is wrong.

In any case CPM scheduling has been underdeveloped as a user-oriented tool and also as a science as both go hand by hand.

Functionalities that let you see the logic have been underdeveloped for long until now. These will turbo charge the status of CPM to the extent to make it manageable.

Open your eyes.

Best regards,
Rafael

Dear Rafael,

The article continue to say the truth, here is some more:
"
Insufficient Attention to the Integrity of Logic
Networks. The logic network is the heart of the
CPM method, but for various reasons it is often
relegated to a position of minor importance.
Formulation of good technique and rules to enable
training in network drawing has not occurred to a
sufficient extent. Therefore, schedulers who
could be described as good network analysts are
at a premium in the industry today. Consequently,
the phrase invented for computers "garbage in;
garbage out," is heard frequently in connection
with CPM schedules.
Most problems with networks stem from the fact
that, although they are often interpreted as
absolute mathematical models, engineering,
procurement, and construction operations are in
reality, much more complex than the network’s
modeling,can handle with fidelity. The accurate
quantification of activities, deciding when one
ends and the next begins, and above all,
specification of the level of detail, are
constant problems in the preparation of networks.
"

Remember this is a 26 years old published article. Which means that it was reviewed by a panel of 3 at least and approved by them for publication.

With kind regards,

Samer

Samer,

“Construction operations are in reality, much more complex”

Yes this is correct, that is why we need more complex tools, and original CPM is too simple.

The fact that scheduling is at times done by inexperienced and incapable people are also true statements. But this is changing, now all Civil Engineering curricula includes some formal training in scheduling, all engineers I know, especially the young are versed on the use of CPM software.

Garbage-in garbage out is mostly due to the fact that the tool should be used by those who manage not by people foreign to the job. For the above reason this is changing not only here but in Russia as per Vladimir comments.

I would blame for the dark years Primavera, a company that bought good products to make a profit but never improved on them. They established themselves as the standard and our institutions followed their backward thinking doctrine of just to improve on the cosmetic side, they put on hold decades of improvements.

Best regards,
Rafael

Dear Rafeal,

Here is a published article from 2005:
"
2005 AACE International Transactions
PS.08
Transparent CPM
Mr. Mark C. Sanders, PE CCE

If the direct output of a project schedule is too confusing for the stakeholders to understand, or if it takes too long to prepare informative output, then the schedule fails to communicate the health of the project in a timely manner. With the advancements that have been made during the last two decades in both CPM scheduling software and the computer hardware that runs these
applications, it is difficult to understand why the industry has not developed "enhanced" scheduling systems that can clearly, accurately, and quickly present the schedule data and critical paths to the stakeholders
"

With kind regards,

Samer

Samer,

If the construction operations are complex the scheduling will be complex, it cannot be done by kindergarten kids.

About the reporting I agree, many technocrats do not know how to communicate, the problem is on management reporting not on the scheduling tool. Stake holders are not technocrats but provided with good communication reports they will get it, is just their area of specialization is other. They can swallow an S Curve, a summary bar chart and a pie diagram, just do not trow them a 100 pages report. On fridays they want to get out of the meeting and go to the Golf Court.

Best regards,
Rafael

Sorry guys, I missed an interesting discussion.
Now I just want to add that we consider trend reports as most useful and easy to understand.
The best one - trends of probabilities to meet project targets.
If the probabilities increase everything is fine, if they go down then corrective actions shall be considered.
They are not easy to calculate but they are easy to understand. And they depend not only on what is happening inside the project but also on project environment.
But in any case look at trends for management decisions.
Best Regards,
Vladimir

Dear Rafael,

Owners investing in projects are much smart than me at least :) The want to save money by reducing time and cost.

Seems to me Vladimir that what you are saying is that correct CPM is not a tool that is serving the Decision Makers directly. They need a team of smart experts to explain the Trends.

(Owners/CM/PMs) obviously are at the kindergarden level of experties in operating CPM black boxes as Rafael pointed out.

I am still in favor of "Lebombo bone" from 35,000B.C. for the simple reason that the owner of the schedule made use of the tool.

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi Samer

I am not convinced with this Lebombo Bone calculating device.

It is after all just a bone with 29 notches in it.

What is the significance of the number 29 when the lunar cycle is 28 days?

It is possible that some bored caveman just cut a few notches to while away the time.

Unless of course he was discussing the sequence of prime numbers with the other primates.

Best regards

Mike Testro

Dear Mike,

The "Lebombo Bone" is very important because the of the concept. It is a tool that is made by the OWNER to schedule. He/she can carry it, use it, modify it at anytime and anywhere.

I sound like a the next commercial for ORACLE on IPOD.

With kind regards,

Samer

PS. Rafael, I have to modidy my earlier statement about Contractual Documents, we can use them a Toilet Paper (recycled or not) only after the elapse of the period of time allowed by Law in the Country where the Project was executed to claim for any "right" either party might find and prove after the closure of the project.

Samer,

Here middle management can make decisions about the schedule; here the schedule serves the decision maker, not sure about the practice in other countries. We empower our employees as needed at the appropriate level.

Here the means and methods are by the Contractor not by the Owner, the schedule is the responsibility of the Contractor unless working under a non common contract type, as for example cost plus when it makes sense for the Owner to keep tight control of the schedule or when the conditions are such it is foreseen that the Owner will interfere with the progress of the job or when working under a Construction Management type of contract which is rarely justified.

Neither CMs nor PMs are at the kindergarten level, here these are the decision makers, these are well trained professionals that at times have problems communicating the Owners the complicated issues as there is a limit as how low they can go. Is not those Owners are morons, on the contrary not by being morons they got the money; just their area of specialization is other. To pretend serious and complicated scheduling is to be done by a teenager and his iPod does not make any sense; we got to stop thinking in this way and concentrate in the education of our managers. We are not at the Jetsons era, not yet.

As of today I have not found a better place to learn about scheduling than at PP, here it is about the real thing, is where theory and practice merges.

Mike,

The Lebombo Bone was a birth control device based on the woman’s menstrual cycle, is obvious.

Best regards,
Rafael

This thread is about history,

What has been,

But,

What has been may not nescessarily be relevant today or tomorrow

What we know is US of A was a former colony of UK, and as the saying goes: the sun never set in the british empire.

But, again,

Nobody believe it anymore.

It is now the time for US of A to be the supreme,

And we have to be happy for that, in my lifetime,

It gave us Primavera, Microsoft Project to name a few

And of course, we have also the Russian, they gave us Spider that is one project management software for the future.

Happen next, I do not know.

Thank you,
Scarlett

Dear Rafael,

I agree with you. My guess is that PP is the Eureka of Scheduling.

WIKI Definition: Scheduling is the process of deciding how to commit resources between a variety of possible tasks. Time can be specified (scheduling a flight to leave at 8:00) or floating as part of a sequence of events

AACE Definition: PLANNING –
(1) The determination of a project’s objectives with identification of the activities to be performed, methods and resources (cost, hours, time, materials, etc.) to be used for accomplishing the tasks, assessment of both value and risks, assignment of responsibility and accountability, and establishment of an integrated plan to achieve completion as required.
(2) In planning and scheduling, the identification of the project objectives and the ordered activity
necessary to complete the project (the thinking part) and not to be confused with scheduling; the process by which the duration of the project task is applied to the plan. It involves answering the questions: 1) What must be done in the future to reach the project objective?; 2) How it will be done?; 3) Who will do it?; and 4) When it will be done?

AACE Definition SCHEDULE –
(1) A description of when each activity in a project can be accomplished and must be finished so as to be completed timely. The simplest of schedules depict in bar chart format the start and finish of activities of a given duration. More complex schedules, general in CPM format, include schedule logic and show the critical path and floats associated with each activity.
(2) A time sequence of activities and events that represent an operating timetable. The schedule specifies the relative beginning and ending times of activities and the occurrence times of events. A schedule may be presented on a calendar framework or on an elapsed time scale


WIKI: The word "mathematics" itself derives from the ancient Greek μάθημα (mathema), meaning "subject of instruction".

WIKI: Prehistoric mathematics

The origins of mathematical thought lie in the concepts of number, magnitude, and form. Modern studies of animal cognition have shown that these concepts are not unique to humans. Such concepts would have been part of everyday life in hunter-gatherer societies. That the concept of number evolved gradually over time is evident in that some languages today preserve the distinction between "one", "two", and "many", but not of numbers larger than two.
The oldest known mathematical object is the Lebombo bone, discovered in the Lebombo mountains of Swaziland and dated to approximately 35,000 BC. It consists of 29 distinct notches deliberately cut into a baboon’s fibula. There is evidence that women used counting to keep track of their menstrual cycles; 28 to 30 scratches on bone or stone, followed by a distinctive marker. Also prehistoric artifacts discovered in Africa and France, dated between 35,000 and 20,000 years old, suggest early attempts to quantify time.

I want you read clearly what the archiologist are saying: "early attempts to quantify time".

Now I can’t say for certain what they did with the bone once the Schedule did not work. But since it is made by the Owner, no one to blame but themselves.

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Scarllet,

It is very important that you understand history because you learn from it. The future on the other hand is unknow, the best this are Trends.

What we are discussing here is good to know becasue you are using these tools. Think about CPM like the infrastructure that you are using; roads, IT networks, etc. How hard for you would it be for you to build a project without roads and electricity. Hard.

The same thing applies to the Black Boxes. If you do not know the limitations and what they can do, you might not get where you want, or you might not be able to build what you want!

The issue is CPM was invented to reduce time and cost, and now it is a complicated tool that is not meeting these goals.

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi Samer,
trends are easy to understand.
Examples:
Total Cost forecast is increasing two months in a row and now is ________________,
Probability to meet target date is 46% at the moment and the trend of last 5 weeks is 32%, 35%. 37%, 42%, 46% - so we shall be happy.

It is not necessary to be an expert for understanding trends.
It is simple and extremely useful.
Best Regards,
Vladimir

Dear Vladimir,

If the solution is easy, we would have found it a long time ago.

That is why we have to think of a simpler concept and tool to save time and cost.

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi Samer,

I guess your "lembombo bone" is an indication that in the early time, women really invented scheduling and the rythm method, and maybe some kind of withdrawal, but as you know, sometimes it misses (same as the latest scheduling tools).

Thanks that the condom was invented later, humanity evolve!

Best regards

The women in the early time already know that every 28 day cycle, something will come out from their body.

And it is still true today and it will be true tomorrow.

So the trend remains the same, that is why the women know how to prepare/plan for this event to happen since it was taught by their mother and their mother’s mother.

So the forecast is not exciting as to what will happen next.

And why are we talking about women body when we are men.

Men also know how to plan what was handed down from their peers. They also know how to use any part of man’s body to achieve their goals: goals for today and tomorrow.

But man has two head, one below and one above, so man is superior in planning using the experience, history, then, man can make forecast for today and tomorrow to come.

This is natural because man is the breadwinner.

Thank you,
Scarlett

In conclusion and to close the thread,

The history of scheduling is as old as man itself because of man’s ability to survive in whatever environment he is in.

What we are doing today is only using the latest tools and inventions to make life more efficient and prodcutive in scheduling.

Eventually, as an old sage said: "when i was a boy, i think like a boy, and in growing in manhood, i thiink as a man, what you learn before may come to an end ...

So relevance to the discussion at hand, the Primavera and Spider project management sofware we are using is the tools for today and maybe years to come, but, eventually, another sophisticated planning software will become the new kid in town.

Thank you,
Scarlett

Dear Scarllet,

Look at nature for finding new solutions not at yourself.

Natural systems are dynamic efficient. They change the use of the material over a long period of time.

A small search at aminal homes:
Animal homes vary from dens, burrows, hollow logs, galls on plants and trees, and numerous types of nests. Look for signs of animal homes by listening for animal sounds such as birds singing , the rustling of animal movement, and the sounding of alarms. Observe tracks and trails found in mud, sand, or snow. Notice feeding signs such as chew marks on plants, animal remains, and droppings or scat. Look for traces of feathers, fur, antlers, shells, and skins. By learning about the habits and characteristics of animals, you will be able to locate and identify many of their homes.

Coming to think of it, maybe that is why Vladimir used the name Spider:

“
Animal Homes http://www.uen.org/utahlink/activities/view_activity.cgi?activity_id=3804

There are over 32,000 types of spiders living on Earth. They live in almost every area from the hottest tropics to the cold continent of Antarctica. Spiders are easily identified by their 8 legs and their ability to spin a web.

Spiders eat insects that they catch in their web. They have fangs to bite the insect. Many spiders also have poisonous glands to help kill the insects, and some are even poisonous to humans.

Spiders have the ability to produce silk from an organ in their abdomen called the spinneret. The spider’s web has many purposes in addition to being a place to live.

Spiders use their web to trap insects for food. Once an insect is caught, they may also use their web to tie up their victim.

Spiders also lay a line of silk as they move around. They anchor the line to a surface, and use the line just like a mountain climber uses their safety rope.
“
Spiders initially started producing silk for reasons other than web-making. When spiders moved from the water to the land in the Early Devonian period, they started making silk to protect their bodies and their eggs. Spiders gradually started using silk for hunting purposes, first as guide lines and signal lines, then as ground or bush webs, and eventually as the aerial webs which are so famous today.
Spiders produce silken thread using several paired spinneret glands located at the tip of their abdomen. Each gland produces a thread for a special purpose – for example a trailed safety line, sticky silk for trapping prey or fine silk for wrapping it. Spiders use different gland types to produce different silks, and some spiders are capable of producing up to 8 different silks during their lifetime.
Most spiders have three pairs of spinnerets, each having its own function – there are also spiders with just one pair and others with as many as four pairs.
Webs allow a spider to catch prey without having to expend energy by running it down. Thus it is an efficient method of gathering food. However, constructing the web is in itself an energetically costly process due to the large amount of protein required, in the form of silk. In addition, after a time the silk will lose its stickiness and thus become inefficient at capturing prey. It is not uncommon for spiders to eat their own web daily to recoup some of the energy used in spinning. The silk proteins are thus recycled.
The tensile strength of spider silk is greater than the same weight of steel and has much greater elasticity. Its microstructure is under investigation for potential applications in industry, including bullet-proof vests and artificial tendons. Researchers have used genetically modified mammals to produce the proteins needed to make this material
www.earthlife.net/chelicerata/web-evolve.html
“
Unfortunately in human society the word primitive is often used as an insult and means something that is no good, while advanced means good, in evolution there is no good or bad except from a personal point of view, all of life is good. In fact many people would prefer a ’primitive’ spider like a Tarantula to a more advanced spider like a Black Widow. You will also occasionally hear or read the terms ’highly evolved’ and ’more evolved’ these really refer to the number of observed evolutionary steps that can be discerned in the creatures evolutionary history. Again being highly evolved is not necessarily good, many of humanity’s most obnoxious parasites are more ’highly evolved’ in terms of evolutionary steps, than humanity itself.
Evolution is not finished, and it certainly didn’t stop for spiders at the orb-web design. Many spiders show modifications of this basic form, many of which are simplifications. The New Guinea spider Pasilobus ssp. builds a simple triangular web consisting of only three radii and four sticky cross bars. This works because if an insect flying past brushes against one of these strands it breaks off from the outer radius and hangs down. In doing so the free end swings around and sticks to the insect which is then reeled in from the still attached end by the spider.
There are also fascinating examples like Dinopis guatemalensis the Net Casting Spider which makes a net of silk web and then hangs upside down waiting for something to pass so that it can drop its net on to it. Or the Bolas Spiders like the American Mastophora ssp. which emit a pheromone that mimics the sex attractant used by certain moths of the genus Spodoptera (Army Worms). Males that are attracted to the false pheromone are then caught by the spider using a swinging a stand of silk with a sticky blob on the end, the moth gets caught in this, the original bolas, and then the spider hauls it in.
The real master craftsmen of the spider world are the orb-web spinners. Yet even within this group we can distinguish evolutionary paths. Spiders that build orb-webs, like other spiders, still have to deal with the insects that get caught in it. This can be tricky as insects are often quick to escape, for instance flies caught in a web spun by Araneus sericatus escape in 5 seconds (on average) if left to their own devices. Also the insect which is caught in the web may be large and aggressive, grasshoppers and crickets can kick quite hard and spiders do get hurt by them, not to mention bees and wasps.

The moral of the story is that natural systems (we being one of them) tailor their systems according to the intended use. CPM can have many levels. For $5M and under projects, you need very simple tools. For mega projects with thousands of Contractors, you need the structured and disciplined approach

Since we part of the natural system and we are evolving on a daily basis, I would suggest that you custom tailer the tool according to the need. And if the tool is not providing you with time and cost saving, then it is time to find a more SUITABLE tool to use.

With kind regards,

Samer

Gentlemen,

Let me present to you the "Lebombo Bone 2010" its a business card for $29.99/mo "user friendly" with the information to "save time" and select the "cost" that the Owner wants. Not bad idea. Owner (Serious professionals :) expensive toys) is served if the concept is achieved.

"
Virtual Business Cards?!!! Our favorite Apple Toys will be Sporting this Brand- Must Read
HOT OFF THE PRESS! Hubze is getting the attention of some very large players. Our favorite APPLE toys will be sporting the Hubze brand. The Virtual Business Card concept is launching in April! Hubze is predicted to move mountains in for both off-line and on-line businesses in 2010.

No, Hubze is not trying to compete with Google, FaceBook, or Twitter. They are actually working with these power houses to simplify the branding process through social media.Their platform is so simple, so easy to navigate that experts are calling Hubze "the BIG ONE" that will be embraced by the masses.

What is Hubze (Hub-zee)?
- The ALWAYS FREE Hubze Cards are as Hot as an Ipod! A virtual business card that’s always live, easy to use and FRESH. That’s the million dollar word... "FRESH".... Search engines love fresh content.

What other FREE features will Hubze offer?
One click platform that pings all your favorite social sites.
- Read and respond to your feeds within this clean platform.
- Build your connections & brand with the tracker feature on your Hubze card.
- Put yourself on the map (even above Google maps!)- Hubze Cards are live and perfect for speakers that move from location to location.
- Locate dining & shops in your area that are using Hubze Cards.

Hubze for the SERIOUS Professional/ ONLY $29.97 per mo.:
- Landing Page for YOUR business (your mini website to market YOUR products)
- Auto Responder to promote YOUR business
- Optimized Blogging all about YOU and YOUR business
- Advertising Benefits
- Affliate Compensation- generous compensation for referring other businesses
- & lots of Apple toys sporting the HUbze logo as YOUR rewards!

http://hubze.com/signup/?referredBy=YourBallyhoo
"

Just get the idea, no need to sign up.

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi Everyone,

It seems that we are getting somewhere, but not in Construction yet.

"
www.tmcnet.com

Workforce optimization and advanced customer interactions systems provider NICE Systems is working with Microsoft to help Microsoft (News - Alert) Communications Server “14” customers optimize the value of customer interactions.

NICE, a Microsoft Gold Certified Partner and a global provider of advanced solutions, also helps enterprises and security organizations to drive business performance, reduce risk and ensure safety.

“We are excited to enable Microsoft Communications Server ‘14’ customers to benefit from the NICE offering, particularly Interaction Analytics, so that they may enhance their compliance efforts, expand their ability to capture and analyze web and voice interactions, and provide a more satisfying customer experience while increasing overall business efficiency,” said Udi Ziv (News - Alert), president Enterprise Product Group, NICE Systems.

Collaborating with Microsoft and extending the partnership will give NICE customers the added benefits of its real-time, cross-channel interaction analytics. Eventually, this will impact customer interactions as they occur and deliver insights to improve organization’s business performance.

In a recent press release discussing the new agreement, Yancey Smith, director of Communications Server Product Management at Microsoft, said that Communications Server ‘14’ can change every communication into a more collaborative, engaging and accessible interaction.

Acting as an integrated suite of targeted business solutions and applications, NICE SmartCenter allows businesses to optimize their Customer Dynamics. This is made possible by capturing the intent of both customer and business, analyzing the intent to reveal insights and using these insights to drive actions that have a real-time impact on business performance.

If organizations are able to take care of the complex interactions with customers they can easily deliver value across a variety of business imperatives.

Understanding interaction means they will be able to accomplish a range of tasks such as ensuring compliance, mitigating risk, streamlining operational performance, differentiating the customer experience and expanding value beyond the contact center into the entire firm
"

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Team,

It seems that logically we (humans in natures) have seleted the CPM to save time and cost on construction projects. So the question is now a holistic approach to Scheduling.

It also seems that the current evolution of CPM is that it is adding Management. So now we have

CPM= Cost + Time savings = Mathematics + Management.

Thanks to our good friends at google, things are moving faster in the world of answering questions. Since the father of Management is Peter Drucker, google pointed out the following

www.knowledgegenes.com

These guys have their eyes on the ball and they are talking common sense. They are talking about "Critical Performance Management". They are talking about "Defining the High Level Requirements", Systems Development and Process Development, and Lean Thinking. What I understand that they have different levels in the organization (makes sense) and each level is answering the same questions and achieving the same goals (makes sense also).

That is why I think that CPM is working for the big organizations and not the medium and small ones. It started in big organizations which already had in house (built in) structured approach of management. When the guys went to the market and opened it to the public, they did not take that into consideration. The mathematicians sold their black box on the market. It drew the activities, sequence, relationships, and calculated the CPM. No management.

Therefore, in order for CPM (seed) to work effectively, it needs the fertile grounds of management.

And since we (humans) already have evolved a little bit more in the Decision Sciences, it is safe to say that

CPM= Cost + Time savings = Mathematics + Management + Decision Making.

Looking forward to your valuable discussion.

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Samer,
I don’t like the use of term CPM. CPM is the method to schedule the project ignoring resource and other constraints.
Management is about managing resources and cost and time savings are created by proper usage of limited resources.
So people created computer models of their projects to be able:
- to optimize project cost and duration by the best possible use of their restricted resources,
- to understand what reserves shall be created for project risks,
- to understand what targets are reliable and achievable (at least project duration and budget),
- to have reliable information on the project status and trends,
- to estimate the consequences of potential actions (including change requests) before making the decisions,
- to store the performance archives for future analysis and potential use for claims analysis.
There are other benefits that I did not mention but I think that those in the list are primary if we discuss the management of the single project.
But it is not enough to calculate the best schedule. Without proper PM system your schedule will be based on non-reliable data and will not be properly used.
So Mathematics serves to Management for proper decision making, it is a tool for good decisions.
Best Regards,
Vladimir

Dear Vladimir,

So we agree that the "Best Schedule" must be a mathematical model accompanied by a management systems implemented company/project wise.

Instead of the term best, I would like to use the "Valuable Schedule" for the simple reason that Owner’s decision is based on the value they associate with the item they buy to suite their needs.

So you need to develop a range of tools to serve the need of the Owners. It is not one size fits all.

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi All,

I found this that also supports the same thing; reply from the founder of CPM to the article of 2003:

“
idea.library.drexel.edu/bitstream/1860/2934/1/Plotnick_Fredric.pdf
RDM
Relationship Diagramming Method
A Thesis
Submitted to the Faculty
of
Drexel University
by
Fredric Leigh Plotnick, Esq., P.E.
in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree
of
Doctor of Philosophy
August 2008


Responding to the ENR article just cited, the co-founder of CPM, James E. Kelley, Jr., writes:
Your cover story, Critics Can’t Find the Logic in Many of Today’s CPM Schedules, paints a disheartening picture of the current state of CPM schedules (ENR 5/26 p. 30). It’s only 46 years since Morgan Walker and I first worked out CPM for duPont and yet project people are still falling into some of the same scheduling traps warned against during CPM’s childhood. The use of features like "leads and lags," "multiple calendars" and "assigned constraints" do provide some levels of schedule flexibility. In practice, their use too often leads to inconsistent schedules and misleading views of project condition.
In the early days of CPM, computing capability was at a premium. Rooting out inconsistencies in scheduling data had to be left completely to the planner. In practice, this meant deliberately limiting the use of the "flexibility" features. Today, the desktop computer I’m using to compose this letter has far more capability than the UNIVAC we used for our first CPM calculations. Thus, there is no reason why the computer cannot be programmed to tell me that my scheduling input is inconsistent and why.
“
… and this was the last part of the conclusion of the Thesis:

“The full promise of CPM was limited by the power of early computers. But now, as computing power has become more available and affordable, it is time to revisit the original “engineering fixes” of the early CPM programs, replace the duct tape, chewing gum and bailing wire with better adhesives, and once again embrace the full potential of CPM for management of our infrastructure construction projects. And then the Schedulers and Project Managers for these projects should lead by example for all projects, programs and operations requiring planning as well as scheduling.
”

So basically, almost everybody is saying using CPM without management is a mess at this time. It seems that I am doing a Forensic Analysis on CPM. Effective management (so far) seems the minimum required tool for reasonable CPM use.

With kind regards,

Samer

Sammer,

The computer does what it is programmed to, the CPM software will follow the rules embedded in the computational algorithms therefore the inconsistency is on the scheduler not the software, and in any case it should read there is no reason why the computer cannot be programmed to tell me that my scheduling input is “potentially” inconsistent and why. I s a warning about a potential trap that need not to be so.

There are metrics that can be programmed to warn us about the potential traps. Also the implementation of finish constraints can be improved simply by not allowing for the constraint to change CPM backward pass computation but merely to provide a flag to warn you if the constraint is projected to be met or not. Yes software can be improved but unfortunately those complaining are doing nothing positive to force true progress.

Tell me how many of them are actively warning about the gross mislead by most software when displaying wrong float after resource leveling. Tell me how many of them are actively complaining about the implementation of constraints that create negative float in the relevant forums. It would even be better if they concentrate on providing the functionality themselves. We need action people not Bull Sh…ers.

Best regards,
Rafael

Dear Rafeal,

I can tell you what I am doing, I ask for the simplest form of Program of Work that a Contractor can manage to his ability. The solution for a Program of Work is Contractor Dependent. Contractor submit the Program of Work and present their plan to complete the work. If they are committed to complete the Job No Schedule in necessary.

When Contractors give me 15 programs of works every month with 1000’s of activities in each, it is very simple to debug and return with more speed than the printer that printed them, for the simple reason that they are full of errors and not based on correct planning.

Action will come when we get to send a letter to PP Admin to form a team and provide new standards. This seems how humans are improving their systems. They chat for a while and then form a task force, this task force creates a solution. Then, you either become a company, a education institute, etc.

It seems that we have PP members + Sponsors + Spider = New Industry Standards.

With kind regards,

Samer
PS. The equation proposed before is missing the Rafael’s ingrident "Dynamic", stay tuned.

Hi,

This is a good summary, and good advice.

Journal of Construction Education Copyright 1997 by the Associated Schools of Construction
Fall 1997, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 222-230 1522-8150/97/$3.00/General Manuscript
Construction Scheduling Specifications
Stephen J. Krone
Bowling Green State University
Bowling Green, Ohio


www.ascjournal.ascweb.org/.../Fall%201997,%20Vol.%202,%20No.%203,%20pp.%20222-230.pdf

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi PP,

A publication from a good source:

Wickwire, Hurlbut, and Lerman, Use of Critical Path. Method Techniques in Contract Claims: Issues and. Developments 1974 to 1988,
www1.fidic.org/resources/contracts/icc_oct05/wickwire_icc05.pdf

The Construction Lawyer, Journal of the Forum on the Construction Industry, Volume 19, Number 4, 1999

Use of Critical Path Method on Contract Claims – 2000.
Jon m. Wickwire and Stuart Ockman.

Introduction:
“… failure of modern scheduling software to require the discipline and realism necessary to plan and schedule complex construction projects. Although most construction attorneys see only the final printouts and schedules, it is important to understand where the potential abuses lie and what must be done to uncover them”

They came to the same conclusion that has been reached here until now.

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi PP,

This is a good article to read. On page 5, it states that CPM came to existance in 27 months as a result of the need to manage a $90M project.

That means that any project over say $1Billion, can afford to hire the best and get a more comprehensive solution that everyone can adopt.

A Short History of Modern Project Management By Alan Stretton

www.pmforum.org/library/second-edition/.../Stretton-10-07.pdf - Similar

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi,

Someone is doing something:

CPM Task Force

CPM Task Force. Mr. Seth Schulgen- CHAIRMAN. Williams Brothers Const. Co., Inc. sschulgen@wbctx.com. Mr. Brad Everett. J.D.

www.agctx.org/assets/files/taskforce/cpm.pdf

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi,

This is what the Masters think:
"
http://www.ics-global.com/IG-CPObsolete.html

July 30, 2008 - Cyberspace
After months of planning and development, the PMI College of Scheduling hosted its first educational webinar series in July 2008. Entitled "Scheduling with the Masters," according to its own promotional material, this series "is dedicated to helping the scheduling professional handle the demanding workload of complex scheduling. Our speakers will feature insights and observations from a variety of perspectives to provide you with a unique view into work and resource planning, along with overall schedule creation and maintenance, designed to make you better at your job."


Is "Critical Path" Obsolete?
"

It has a 1 hour prestation as well.

With kind regards,

Samer

vladimir

for your reading pleasure, http://www.librcps.org/
it is used in kplato, an open source scheduling software
http://www.koffice.org/kplato/


best regards.