M4.5 Contingency & Uncertainty

1. Practical outcomeThe learner should be able to turn a bounded approval into a verified revision of the affected scope, schedule, budget, progress, risk and configuration records. They should preserve previous baselines, maintain relationships between approved, forecast and as-built information,…

1. Practical outcomeThe learner should be able to recognise a potential change, record and define it, assess integrated consequences, identify the correct authority, support an approve/reject/defer decision and track implementation to verified closure. They should distinguish a changed requirement…

1. Practical outcomeThe learner should be able to produce one coherent view of expected project outcomes by reconciling schedule, cost, physical accomplishment, acceptance, commercial exposure and uncertainty. They should identify inconsistent assumptions, distinguish target from forecast, build…

1. Practical outcomeBy the end of this section, the learner should be able to establish, explain, govern and reassess cost and schedule provision for uncertainty without hiding it inside the base plan. They should be able to distinguish base budget or duration from contingency and, where the…

1. Practical outcomeBy the end of this section, the learner should be able to turn an analysed threat or opportunity into a controlled management response that is proportionate, owned, time-bound and integrated with the way the project is actually delivered. They should be able to distinguish a…

1. Practical outcomeBy the end of this section, the learner should be able to take a defined project objective, a credible current schedule or cost model, and a selected set of material uncertainties and turn them into a transparent quantitative view of possible outcomes. They should be able to…

1. Practical outcomeThe learner should be able to take identified risks and assess them systematically so that management attention focuses on what matters. They should be able to assess probability and impact, apply a scoring framework, use a matrix appropriately, consider other relevant factors,…

1. Practical outcomeBy the end of this section, the learner should be able to establish a disciplined risk-identification process that finds, frames and records uncertainty before it is scored or modelled. They should be able to distinguish risks from issues, assumptions, dependencies, decisions…

1. Practical outcomeBy the end of this section, the learner should be able to produce and challenge a credible cost forecast that explains what the project or package is now expected to cost, why that expectation differs from the authorised baseline or prior forecast, what commercial and delivery…

1. Practical outcomeBy the end of this section, the learner should be able to use the approved cost baseline and the reliable current cost position established in M3.3 to determine where cost performance differs from plan, explain why it differs, judge whether the movement is temporary or…