Project Risk Analysis
In the Open Standard
Dattatreya PadharthiMember for 23 years 6 months
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Schedule Risk analysis itself is a complicated subject full of probabilities & statistics.
A robust schedule is a mandatory prerequisite for such an analysis.
A schedule where durations are governed by quantities (productivity).
But when it comes to activity relationships, things become really complicated. We can end up with number of possibilities between two activities.
E.g Piping Prefab & erection & their relationship (SS/FF).
At the start of the Project/Proposal stage how should we take care of these uncertainities in relationships?
A robust schedule is a mandatory prerequisite for such an analysis.
A schedule where durations are governed by quantities (productivity).
But when it comes to activity relationships, things become really complicated. We can end up with number of possibilities between two activities.
E.g Piping Prefab & erection & their relationship (SS/FF).
At the start of the Project/Proposal stage how should we take care of these uncertainities in relationships?
1 reply
Oldest first- 0Frank Borcherdt ·Dattatreya,
Risk analysis is usually modeled in a tool such as PertMaster which not only allows you to quantify the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic durations and the distribution between the low and high values BUT also allows:-
probabilistic calendars to model weather, industrial stoppages, etc
conditional branching to model contingency plans should a key milestone date be exceeded (recovery plan)
probabilistic branching to model activities failing to meet a standard/or test x% of the time and therefore rework/redesign is required and those activities are pre-defined.
It will run many iterations (you can supply) and produce outputs showing how often activities are critical and the range of expected resource and cost outcomes.
Take a look at http://www.pertmaster.com/ for further info.
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