EXCEL as Risk Analysis Software

I think it is. But it will be a lot of work. It might be cheaper to just buy the software...

Actually a nice challenge to figure out how... but I don’t really have time for that now... very very maybe later...

Hi Arno,

Thanks for your interest.

We will try to progress if our time will allow us

Cheers,

Charlie

Yes ... U can.

I use Excel working together with MS Project, analyzing critical activities, registering risks, level risks, recovery plans, immediatly actions, responsbles etc.

Regards.

This is one way from good old Bill Gates. Takes a bit of reading through and working out but it can create a sort of Monte Carlo type risk spreadsheet.

http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/assistance/HA011118931033.aspx

Nige

thanks Nigel.
a good article.
IMO using excel for schedule risk analysis is not so easy.
MSP with VBA is better, at least MSP can do CPM calculation.

Dear guys
I uses Excel to do risk analysis based on activity duration. My Excel file shows the probability of project completion and also criticality level for each activity (based on time). Let’s me know if anyone is interested, i think i can make an easy version to show you guys.

yes absolutely, I’m interested. Could u forward to me aizamcapri@gmail.com or maz.aizam@simedarby.com...

yes absolutely, I’m interested. Could u forward to me aizamcapri@gmail.com or maz.aizam@simedarby.com...

Hi Chochrist,

Im interested. Is it possible for you to forward to me at charlieorbe@yahoo.com

Cheers

Chochrist,

If not too much trouble, I too would be interested.

If possible, forward to abandc@alltel.net

please goto
http://www.chachris.com/index_files/excel.htm
or
http://chachrist.googlepages.com/RiskAnalysis.pdf

I wish I have time to show you guys more. Anyway, this should give you an idea how to do this in EXCEL.

By the way, please check PERTMASTER and @RISK software. These two companies have add-on application for EXCEL, MS PROJECT,and P3 sebjected to RISK ANALYSIS

Guys I have a question.
What if I make an excel application for the risk analysis as shown in my website (with more feather such as SS and FF relationships and optimizing cost), how much money I could sell it? I just wonder. Anyone would buy is for $50 ??

http://www.chachris.com/index_files/excel.htm

it’s very interesting

if it’s possible, please forward it to me

semsemhiggy1@yahoo.com

Hello Chachrist,

If it is work it, why not?

50 US$ is peanut if I can use it to get 1,000 US$ more in my monthly salary.

Please go ahead and show what you got, your stuff.

Go Go GO

Cheers,

Charlie

Dear Chachrist
A great thanks for your link and i am also intrested even cost little more than suppose.
Keep up with high ambitious
Regards
Tahir

very interesting staff, would be interested to see it being developed and even assist with development and testing,

well done

a.sphicas@cytanet.com.cy

excellent stuff.....thank you guys for providing such valuable inputs for making a planners life easy......

cheers

send me a copy at narnor2002@yahoo.com pls.

chachrist,

That’s good work on ur website.

but how do you decide upon the standard deviation for each activity duration. Also how would you decide on the pessimistic, most likely or optimistic times. MY QUESTION IS RELATED TO LABOUR INTENSIVE CONSTRUCTION ONLY.

Dear my friend
You should be able to find this information documents related to productivity on the web.

Or you can do some experiment by yourself. Do the job for 10 times then get average and SD value. :)

Or ...well...if there is any book about construction productivity in India, which usually provides mean value, you can use the mean value and try set SD = 10%, 20%, and 30% of the mean value. Heheheee this sound super fun to me.

Hi guy,
I am madly interested so put me in copy,
juliusabuda@yahoo.com

Rgds
julius

This sounds and looks good. Click send when you have attached a copy to: logusman@yahoo.com

chachrist,

THAT’S GOOD WORK, BUT WHY DID YOU CHOOSE ONLY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION?
AND HOW DID YOU CALCULATE THE VALUE OF STANDARD DEVIATION?
BEST REGARDS

you can use any distribution you want as long as you have the function in Excel (either built-in or from other commercial software such as @Risk by Palisade decistion tool). There are some built-in distributions in Excel:normal, gamma, exponential, and hypergeometric.

The example on my webpage is just to show how to do risk analysis using simulation (numerical approach) in Excel.
About standard deviation (also the same for distribution, it depends on manay factors such as what type of activity, is it lobor or machine intensive, site condition, weather. In order to select a proper distribution and SD, I suggest you to collect some real data that is considered a good representation for your project(in term of the mentioned factors above) and then use some fit curve distribution software such as StatFit in ProModel, or ...other software to get distribution and its parameters.
Well, or you can try to find information from publication on the web.
Or, hmm just use normal distribution with mean from RSMeans Building Construction Cost Data and use SD of 10%, 20%, ... of the mean, just to get the picture of risk.

DEAR Chachrist Srisuwanrat,
I didn’t mean which distribution you select, I do mean that why you select normal distribution, that was the first question.
And how can I calculate the standard deviation’s value?
is it just collect some data and get the equation by curve fitting? I think it will be more efficient if you collect the different types of risks, sort them and select a suitable risk weight, allocate the to each activity, and get the final degree of risk assigned to each activity. So i will be more realiable, but more complicated. isn’t it?

I choose normal distribution in my example just for the sake of simplicity.
BTW, i am quite interested in what you said "collect the different types of risks, sort them and select a suitable risk weight, allocate the to each activity, and get the final degree of risk assigned to each activity." However, to be honest, this is something beyond my current knowledge. I will try to time to study your suggestion. Do you have any book you want to recommend me about the topic?

Thank you for your reply, and I will search for some good topic documents in this topic. In addition, I can help you in developing this project, as I am also interested in this branch of science. On the other hand, I can Simulate different types of probability distribution that represent the most optimistic and the most pessimistic as well.
I will be ready.

Hey, this seems to be an interesting collaboration :D.
Just for you know, now I am making this thing in MS Excel and MS Project during my spare time. Any suggestion is welcome :) I need to learn more about this.

Could you email me a copy of the same at sah7818@hotmail.com please. Your efforts shall be appreciated.

Hallo i would like to have a copy also THANK first!!! hehe

Email adds : chiteng83@hotmail.com

Hi all,

Pls copy me also at edris_md@yahoo.com

Could you also please send me a copy of the risk analysis software.

contact_us43@yahoo.com.au

Much appreciated.

Hi all!

i would appreciate if someone send me a copy of the schedule risk analysis. Thank you!

regards,
denmark

my email add by the way is denmark_zb@yahoo.com. jejeje. thanks.

I would appretiate a copy of this software as well. Thank you very much.

can i get a copy of the excel templete for Monte- Carlo simulation at my id Bpaul@cbi.com

rgrds, BP

Bipresh

If you really want to do proper Risk analysis where the formulae have been tested and the people who creted it actually know what they are doing try the following URL


http://www.projchallenge.com/solutions_presentations/Mark%20Swabey%20v%20web.ppt

I have seen this product and reckon it beats all the rinky dink Excel macros that exist

Raf

HI
cAN SOMEONE SEND ME A COPY AS WELL
THANKS
HENRY

Folks
If you are so keen to write Risk Analysis using Excel, then there is a far better tool which cost about $USD 150.00
Go to www.decisivetools.com and look for i-decide
It has more maths than you have ever learnt

Raf

Hi Chochrist,

Im interested. Is it possible for you to forward to me at engrnel_17@yahoo.com


Thanx..
Rnel

I would appretiate a copy of this software as well. Thank you very much. my email address is odilihenry@yahoo.com

Guys

I gave you the web address in my previous post

www.decisivetools.com

download a 30 day trial to see for yourself.


iDecide is an award-winning software program for decision and risk analysis. With iDecide you can quickly build influence diagrams describing the risk or decision and then run Monte Carlo simulation. The result is a statistically accurate representation of the range and likelihood of all possible outcomes. In other words, iDecide gives you the power to handle risks and decisions like a professional.

Raf

can somebody please send me a file of above subject
my email address is lestrell152@yahoo.com.ph

many thanks

and i just join the PP today (15NOV08)

dear Chachrist

Thanks to send the file, i want to see how to make it

dear Chachrist

Thanks to send the file, i want to see how to make it
sorry my mail is l.messis@yahoo.fr

Hi Chachrist,

I’d love to have a copy.

engr_ravelasco@yahoo.com

Happy Planning....

can anybody send the subject file to me at maksabic@gmail.com

thanks in advance

AK

Is it too late to ask for a copy?
thanks in advance
pasteur_78@yahoo.com

thanks for the inputs from those who like and dislike my simple RISK Analysis macro. I didnt plan to make it as an end product. My macro and the code should be viewed as a starter. It should show you how to make a simple simulation out of MS Excel and MS Project.
By the way, sorry I didnt write the manual, since I believe we all can figure out how it works.

Hi Friend of PlanningPlanet, I would appreciate if you send me the excel file to ivanemejia@yahoo.com or ivanmejia70@hotmil.com. and I will come back with my comments about the way to improve it, if any.

Thanks in advance,

Ivan